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YouGov Poll: Support for an arms embargo to Israel would HELP Harris in swing states

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First, lest anyone think I am cavalier about the security of Israelis, I am a dual Israeli-American citizen writing from West Jerusalem. Most importantly, my three children live here. One of the hostages grew up quite literally in the seat next to mine in synagogue Shabbat after Shabbat. I’ve been to funerals of soldiers in the past year. I am myself a veteran of a combat unit with a shortlist of people I knew who never made their 21st birthdays. 

A recent Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project/YouGov poll addresses the question of withholding arms shipments to Israel as pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza. Supporting this, contrary to assumptions, is not political kryptonite for Harris. Especially in the critical swing states of PA, GA, and AZ.

The polling of nearly 1,500 likely Democratic and independent voters found that 34 percent said they would be more likely to vote for the nominee if they pledged to withhold weapons to Israel, while only 7 percent said they’d be less likely.

The margin is even more pronounced among undecideds, and especially PA undecideds.

Support jumps among those who say they are undecided in this election, with a whopping 57 percent saying they’re more likely to back the nominee if they make the pledge, with zero percent saying that they would be less likely to vote for them. This margin is the most prominent in Pennsylvania — one of the most important states in the presidential election, with 19 electoral votes.

It’s crucial to note that current military support, beyond perhaps Iron Dome, is doing nothing for the immediate security of Israelis. Furthermore, there is precedent. A prior US president withheld a shipment of F-16s to Israel in the middle of a war. His name was Ronald Reagan.


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